When Good Forecasts Still Miss

Issue #31
3-minute read

We keep missing our individual giving targets. Not dramatically or catastrophically, but consistently.

Major gifts and principal gifts—the parts of our revenue mix expected to do the heavy lifting—are falling short. The annual fund exceeds goals. Foundation grants are skyrocketing and corporate giving is steady. Big individual gifts keep coming in under plan.

Each miss can be explained by factors like a delayed decision, a timing shift, or a donor needing more runway.

After a while, these explanations start feeling repetitive. That’s when it became clear to me: this isn’t just a forecasting issue; it’s a pipeline maturity issue.

When Your Pipeline Is Younger Than Your Plan

Our major gifts program is less than six years old, and our principal gifts program is just four years old.

On paper, the forecasts seem reasonable; they’re based on genuine relationships and honest conversations. But we lack historical data. There’s no established group of funders who’ve stayed with us through multiple cycles. This leaves us without the pattern data that would clarify what “should close” means.

We’re trying to build confidence in a pipeline that hasn’t earned that confidence yet.

When we miss our target, why? Is it a capacity issue? Is the team not ready yet?

Or are we expecting a relatively immature program to deliver results like a mature one?

Why Pipeline Stability Looks Different at Different Stages

When people discuss revenue diversification, they usually refer to spreading risk across various channels. While this is a good instinct, it assumes that each channel is mature enough to be reliable.

How do you instill confidence in a pipeline that’s still learning its function?

Pipeline stability isn’t just about diversifying revenue; it’s about understanding which parts of your plan are tried and tested versus those that remain educated guesses.

What System Three Is Actually For

In the Chief Fundraiser Operating System we’re developing, System Three addresses a crucial question: Do we know enough to trust this forecast?

When a pipeline is still maturing, every miss often has three possible explanations:

1. Capacity: Do we have the right people and systems in place?

2. Performance: Is the work executed to the required standard?

3. Stage: Are we expecting results that the program isn’t prepared to deliver?

When you can differentiate these factors, conversations become clearer.

When you can’t, it’s difficult to identify what needs fixing.

The Questions I’m Asking Right Now

What does “real” mean at our stage?

Which prospects have the relationship depth, giving history, and engagement patterns that predict a close? Not aspirational or warm leads; I want to know what’s genuinely viable. This might lower projected revenue, but it will increase our confidence.

Am I pushing the team too hard?

If capacity is the issue, then simply adding more prospects won’t solve it. Now I’m looking to streamline the work, including role assignments and portfolio design.

What pipeline-building capabilities do we need to develop?

Mature programs don’t rely on a short list of maybes; they intentionally cultivate future donors. We’re asking ourselves what that process should look like.

What to Test This Week

If you find yourself in a similar situation, consider these steps:

1. Conduct a maturity audit to distinguish between prospects with genuine relationship depth and those that are simply warm. That’ll give you a more realistic forecast.

2. Assess dependency by removing your top three “should close” prospects. If revenue decreases by 40% or more, you’ve found the fragility.

3. Strip the noise. Cut down on meetings and low-probability work that don’t strengthen the pipeline.

This won’t mature a program overnight.
But it will tell you whether the issue is capacity, performance, or stage.

Coming Next Week

What happens when revenue grows faster than the team can handle? Next Sunday: System Four – The Team Structure That Scales

Your Turn

If you adjusted today’s forecast based on pipeline maturity, would it increase or decrease? How would your planning change based on that new number?

Feel free to reach out if this resonates. I’m wrestling with it too.

Until next week,
​Christine​

P.S. If you’re carrying decisions like this mostly on your own, that’s what this newsletter is for.

P.P.S. If you know someone carrying that weight, feel free to forward this. If they want, they can subscribe here.

I’m Christine Bork, Chief Development Officer at the American Academy of Pediatrics. I write Chief Fundraiser Weekly to share what I’m learning as I lead a growing team and try to do the work in a way that’s sustainable and thoughtful.